The Science of Decision Making

 Essentially, a decision is a choice among possibilities. It involves assessment of the courses of action available and a determination of the action ( or nonaction) to take. A decision occurs when a person with an unfulfilled need takes an action to satisfy that need or Desire. Intuitively, “a good” decision is one that selects the best available course of action in the face of uncertainty about the consequences. Why is there uncertainty? because decision making does not necessarily have all the relevant information in hand. You can't by logic alone weigh having coffee with friends against the library session.  Will having coffee with friends end on a pleasant note for the future? Will the reading prove relevant to what’s asked on the exam ? You can't know the definitive answers to these questions at the time you have to make your decision.

 Some decisions are easy to make and indeed may not even feel like decisions because the choice seems so obvious. There is often a dominating option that is clearly better than the others in regard to the factors important to you. you don't spend much time in decision making when you order a favourite dish at a family restaurant or take a better paying, more interesting job in preference to a less well paid, boring one. Decisions like these are easy because we know what we want ( our values)  and what  we will get ( the consequences).  Of course, many decisions are much more difficult,  and the stakes are much higher-  some like the response to disease or injury or the choice of a mate-  are fundamental to the survival and propagation of our genes. But for both hard and easy decisions, these two factors, the value to us of each option and the likely outcome, are crucial in decision making.

 For making a decision we can use the concept of a decision tree. The components of a decision are conveniently summarised in a graphical display known as a decision tree. Decision trees represent the courses of action or options under consideration, the likelihood of what we will get if we choose each course of action, and the consequences that follow each choice.

 

Decision trees provide an intuitive, useful way to visualise decisions, summarising optional courses of action, outcomes and consequences and uncertain event contingencies. It can be used to analyse personal and professional decisions. A method of analysing decisions in terms of expected utilities, using a decision tree as a tool, is generally accepted as the rational method of making an ideal decision.  Often construction of the tree initiates a search for information to reduce uncertainties about what consequences will occur, how they are related to the decision maker’s goals, and the likelihood that the decision-relevant event will occur. This is an effective way of taking right decision at the right time.

 -       Dr.Bhavna Joshi, Assistant Professor, JIE