Objective of Brexit: Global Britain or isolationism

During the referendum campaign, two seemingly contradictory political visions could be found amongst ‘Leave’ supporters. The first is isolationism, fuelled by fear of immigration and the quest for sovereignty, reinforced by the influx of refugees. In fact, many Brexit supporters have been confused about freedom of movement in Europe and immigration from beyond the EU’s borders. It should be noted here that some in the UK (particularly those from Commonwealth backgrounds) see Brexit as an opportunity to address the perception that nationals from the rest of the world are treated unfairly in comparison to EU citizens when trying to obtain the right to work and live in the United Kingdom.

The second vision is that the United Kingdom should become an advocate for free trade and an offshore financial centre. Supported by the memory of the empire and the good health of the Commonwealth, as well as the desire to preserve its claimed status as the world’s leading financial centre, it affirms the global vocation of the United Kingdom (Global Britain), which European regulatory constraints supposedly hinder. The two visions, isolationism and globalism, are based on political and identity-based logic rather than economic and utilitarian rationale. And their contradictions are apparent: Leave supporters dream of making the United Kingdom a ‘great Switzerland’, globally open to foreign capital and trade in manufactured goods and services (while protecting its agriculture), connected to the EU through sectoral agreements, but closed to immigration.

What brought together Brexiteers was the idea of “taking back control”, each component with the hope that its political agenda would eventually triumph domestically. The decision to leave the EU indeed only became possible because a majority of British citizens thought there were national alternatives to EU membership. For Brexiteers, this meant to return full control to the national parliament overall decisions applying to the United Kingdom. Ironically, however, many of them then expressed frustration with the role of the UK Parliament in the Brexit process and supported its prorogation (which was later invalidated by the Supreme Court).

Negotiations on trade agreements with major powers such as the United States, China and India will be long, and tough for the United Kingdom once it is outside the EU. Negotiating alone puts it in a much less favourable position than negotiating as a Member State of the EU. Given the new power differential that would result from a hard Brexit, it is likely that access to the UK market for US agricultural and agri-food products would have a negative impact on British farmers who would not necessarily benefit from the tradeThe emergence of a British competitor on the EU’s doorstep with low taxation, lower standards, lower costs and free ports, would force the EU to protect its market and would end up creating significant economic barriers between the EU and the UK.The Brexiteers could finally succeed. Since the referendum, the likelihood of an exit has never been higher. But will Brexit succeed? Probably not, or else it will cause many losers, including those who voted to leave the EU and could turn bitter. The resulting frustration, resentment and anger will only increase the rise of populism in the form of both nationalist and neo-liberal populism on the one hand and left-wing populism on the other. It is obvious that neither the English, nor the British, nor the Europeans would have anything to gain from such a scenario.