Covid-19 Risk of Infection Prediction for Smart Health Governance

 

In December 2019, first Covid-19 pandemic outbreak from the city Wuhan of China has grabbed all over the world countries with more than 12.5 crore confirmed cases of Covid-19 and counting is increasing rapidly. All the medical research laboratories are trying to develop the vaccine to control the spread of pandemic covid-19.  But many of vaccines are under different stage of trials in different countries. Vaccine and medical treatment is one aspect to control the spread of pandemic but latest web based technology, mobile based technology, blockchain and Internet of things (IoT) devices can be used to control spread rate of pandemic and predicting risk of infection to concerned person.  IoT devices are interconnected devices over internet. These IoT devices having sensors can be used control the pandemic. It has been discussed the how IoT devices, blockchain technology and mobile based technology can be used to control the pandemic. There is a self-assessment test in Covid-19 tracing mobile app/ website and based on self-test test, prediction using IFS regarding the risk of infection of Covid-19 has been done. It is also discussed the Indian government initiative to tackle the pandemic at national level.

A novel virus category called corona viruses which may affect persons as well as animals at large and can damage respiratory, hepatic, lungs, cardio, gastrointestinal and neurologic system.  The respiratory disease has common cold and pneumonia, and most of the cases; people generally have mild disease. The number of symptoms ranges from mild to severe fever, cough, and shortness of breath. The infection can be diagnosis by a test called PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). At present, there are not specific medicines, treatment, and vaccination available. The prevention of this virus is to use alcohol based sanitizer and frequent washing hands and using mask and social distancing. These include the SARS-COV coronavirus. The other outbreaks were in SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in 2003 and 2012. World Health Organization (WHO) came to know that many people are complaining related to respiratory illness who visited the seafood market in Wuhan (WHO Organization. Novel Coronavirus (2019). In research, researchers found that Covid-19 may likely to be originated from bats. Researchers also found that Covid-19 spreads with close human contacts, droplets of infected humans. So WHO advisory is issued for all countries to take intensify measure to control the covid-19 and identifying infected persons and quickly isolate and quarantine. The incubation duration for infected person is decided to 14 days and in this period, it can infect others also. This virus impacted a lot on social life, economy, and health across the world. In last hundred years, such deadly viruses cause for pandemic had been seen in 1918, 1957, and 1968 .The virus impacted a cities a lot which contribute 80% of total GDP and half of worldwide population resides (World Bank Urban Development (2019). As a result of this, the people living in cities have high vulnerability to be infected. Rapid development, population growth, global travel and concept of smart cities contributed to transmission of infection. As concept of smart cities evolves, there is probability of increased use of latest technology such as blockchain, big data, smart mobiles, Bluetooth devices etc. These smart technology can be used to fall covid-19 disease spread rate or other future pandemic. Technology driven approach can be used transmission under control using IoT short range devices rather than human driven approach. Chinese government adopted technology driven approach and used sophisticated technology for surveillance during   first three months of outbreak in Wuhan of China. After Wuhan, the outbreak of Covid-19 started in western countries and transmission of virus was at full pace in first three months. Following the China government’s steps to control transmission, lockdown across cities are imposed. Surveillance of infected persons with contact tracing , Covid-19 symptoms detection using technology driven methods are used to control transmission. In India, first case of Covid-19 outbreak was detected in January 2020. Indian government has taken a lot of measures to control transmission of virus. Government started screening of passengers from abroad, lockdown is imposed, airlines, metro, railway services suspended across country. AarogyaSetu mobile application is launched by Indian government in April 2020 to trace infected citizens. Self assessment questions are available to assess the health condition of citizens. This mobile app works on Bluetooth technology to check the proximity of person to person. To curb the pandemic, short range communication working on internet can be used.  The IoT devices can not only be used for connecting sensing devices but also can act on data collected by devices and automating process without human intervention.  The huge data collected from IoT devices and applying AI algorithms for analyzing data for better serve citizens as part of Smart Governance. For e.g., cameras installed on public places can warn the citizens about pandemic when cameras detects overcrowded public place. IoT enabled services can be used at other places such as health, trade, cultural, industry etc.

 

 

 

Dr Kanchan Tyagi

Assistant Professor

Applied Science